ANALYSIS SWITCHED TO APRIL FUTURES **ROLL ADVISED

WTI Crude Oil Futures (April)

Yesterday’s Settlement: 72.10, up +0.27 [+0.38%]

WTI Crude Oil’s strong rally was driven by news that OPEC+ may delay output hikes for April and Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure.

Uncertainty surrounding forward supply (OPEC), strikes on Russian infrastructure, and general market tightness banded together to drive crude higher again yesterday.

Indian refiners were reportedly buying Middle Eastern barrels today, but shipping reports from Russian ports this morning show scheduled loadings above Jan figures (1,970 kbps vs. 1,850 kbps Jan). This may be a sign that importers are finding ways around U.S. sanctions, or countries are betting Trump may relax Russian export / tanker controls.

Last night’s API report was as follows [thousand bbls]:

Crude: +3,300
Gasoline: +2,800
Distillates: -2,700

Estimates for today’s EIA report are as follows [thousand bbls]:

Crude: 3,000
Gasoline: -1,000
Distillates: -1,500
Refinery Utilization: -0.60%

Today, futures are higher by +0.35 [+0.49%] to 72.45

Trump is reportedly reviewing Chevron’s exports of Venezuelan Oil. The article was released on Tuesday, and I’m watching it.

In our opinion, Trump’s eagerness to ease tensions with Russia may potentially be an effort to decouple the Kremlin’s ties with Iran / Syrian regimes alongside China, potentially. If Russia does come to the table willingly, Iran and Syria will be on an island for Trump to attack. He had vocalized and acted before regarding “maximum pressure” on Iran, which included military strikes in his last tenure. The news on Trump’s review of Venezuelan exports also helps ease my fears of Russian flows returning online. It seems like Trump is trying to play mix and match with sanctions and possible Russian flows as he attempts to keep oil prices elevated enough to incentivize production while keeping U.S. inflation in check.

However, only Trump knows Trump’s plan, and this outlook is merely speculation.

Technical Analysis:

WTI Crude Oil futures scored a settlement above our key three-star support level of 71.34-71.70*** yesterday, clearing the final hurdle of what now looks like a healthy consolidation.

Our outlook is for a choppy, range-bound trade to end the week with intraday risk being skewed to the upside. Concrete, longer-term positioning is tough in this market and a tactical approach is still favored.

Read the full article here with charts and more market commentary: https://bluelinefutures.com/2025/02/20/crude-oil-climbs-on-supply-uncertainty-and-geopolitical-tensions/ 
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